Recently GYDE partnered with the Property Council of Australia to produce a series of research papers on the status of housing supply across NSW.
The reports consider the health housing supply in relation to demand and delivery, as well as the strategic alignment between the actual delivery of housing and what the relevant strategic plans aim to deliver.
Greater Sydney experienced a peak in delivery of housing in the years 2017-18 and 2018-19. Since then, supply has reduced.
· Greater Sydney is a risk of a significant housing undersupply at the current levels of around 30,000 homes completed each year.
· With the predicted undersupply and increased divergence from meeting the target for the 2016 to 2036 period, it is critical that supply is increased to meet both future demands as well as the underlying deficit in housing supply.
In order to meet the projected demand of 58,000 dwellings, the level of housing supply must be maintained at the current levels.
· Over the past five years, housing delivery in the region has been strong. Completions have generally surpassed the projected demand for 2041 with only two years failing to meet the projected demand.
· The Illawarra-Shoalhaven region is likely to deliver sufficient housing to meet the projected demand outlined by DPE. However, changes in demand as a result of COVID need to be closely monitored.
The Hunter has been experiencing population growth over the last five years beyond what was projected by DPE in 2019. This increased level of population growth is likely placing increased demand on housing in these LGAs, placing pressure on the existing supply and delivery trends.
· To meet its projected demand, the Hunter requires 84,700 dwellings from 2016 to 2041 requiring delivery of approximately 3,380 dwellings per year.
· The majority of Greater Newcastle LGAs are on track to deliver enough housing to meet projected demand within their local area. However, some LGAs need to increase dwelling supply and delivery to ensure enough housing is provided for their population particularly given the increased population growth occurring in much of Greater Newcastle. Understanding the individual circumstances of each LGA will be key to ensuring strong delivery of housing, as will a strategic assessment of ‘market/shovel ready greenfield land.
Housing supply in the Central Coast is still failing to meet projected demand, and has done so for years prior to the pandemic. Without a change in approach, it will continue to undersupply dwellings in an already constrained market.
· From 2016 to 2021 the number of housing completions trended up. However, since 2019-20, housing delivery has declined, with a drop in completions. During this period, the Central Coast delivered 7,200 new dwellings.
· A multitude of factors impact the delivery of housing in the Central Coast; changing housing demand, declining completions, and historical delivery trends indicate the region will not deliver enough housing to meet the projected demand to 2036 or to 2041. Changes must be made to housing supply and delivery to ensure sufficient housing is delivered to meet projected demand.
If you would like to know more, please contact: Chris O’Dell chriso@gyde.com.au
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